With the election in its closing stretch, Managing Director, Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills and team provide in-depth analysis of the presidential and congressional races.
To read the full analysis, see the Washington Policy report linked below.
Elections tend to break towards one candidate in the closing days, but the direction is not confirmed until all votes are counted. “Toss-up” implies a 50-50 probability, but we have seen most, if not all, of the “toss-up” states favor one party in the final analysis. The 2024 Election is likely to follow this pattern. Add in the winner-take-all nature of the Electoral College allocation (ex-Maine and Nebraska), and the outcome in the presidential race could easily show a sizable victory for either candidate. As of writing (October 24), the shift in sentiment and polling appears to favor former President Donald Trump, but given the surprise results of recent elections (as well as numerous other factors we discuss in this report), we continue to view the presidential election as a toss-up. In our daily discussions, we see strong arguments for and against either candidate winning, with neither having a clear edge.
Given the hyper-partisan nature of the election and with more than 80% of voters assigning a 0% probability of them supporting the other candidate – the post-election conventional wisdom could easily shift towards “of course X was always going to win.”
Of course Trump won: Should Trump win the election, we expect the post-election narrative to include: This was Trump’s election to lose with so many voters saying the country was on the wrong track. The Harris campaign was a liberal media creation and pundits got caught up in their anti-Trump views and just could not see his election as inevitable. The key issues of inflation, immigration, and geopolitical uncertainty favored Trump, with voters trusting him more on key issues. The polls once again under-counted his support and polls were skewed to depress voter turnout.
Of course Harris won: Should Vice President Kamala Harris win, we expect the post-election narrative to include: Trump’s 2016 win was a fluke, he has lost every election since, and has repeatedly cost Republicans congressional majorities. Pundits have PTSD from Trump’s surprise 2016 election and could not call it for Harris, as they did not want to be embarrassed again, if they were wrong. This was the first national election since the Supreme Court decision on abortion. Harris was able to maintain the Democratic coalition and build support from key swing voters, as well as never-Trump Republicans (who represented a shy-Harris vote). Undecided voters stated clearly that they did not like Trump and it was so obvious that they would break towards Harris in the closing days.
Senate breakdown: In this report, we provide our race-by-race analysis of the most competitive Senate races. Republicans have a clear edge in the race for the Senate majority, likely winning seats in West Virginia and maintaining a small edge in Montana and Texas. Several Democratic-held seats remain in the toss-up category, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, and Ohio, but they have the edge in holding a seat in Arizona. A Republican-held seat in Nebraska needs to be watched as a wildcard.
When will we know the results? If most or all of the swing states “swing” in one direction, we should have a strong idea of who won the race in the hours after the polls close. However, given the ballot counting rules in several swing states, it could be several days, if not a week or more before a final result is announced. In this report, we outline the time that the AP called each race in 2020, with Pennsylvania and Nevada called the Saturday after the election. North Carolina was not called for 10 days, and Georgia took 16 days. Directionally, we knew the outcomes of these states with reasonable certainty the morning after the election, but the prospect of blue and red mirages and/or early declaration of victory are important issues to follow.
Electoral count: Expect the unexpected is an unofficial theme of the 2024 election. In this report, we highlight the Electoral College process and the reforms post-2020 seeking to reduce post-election uncertainties.
Read the full
Washington Policy report
Read the full
Investment Strategy Quarterly
All expressions of opinion reflect the judgments of the Raymond James Washington Policy office and are subject to change.
There is no assurance the trends mentioned will continue or that the forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Economic and market conditions are subject to change. Investing involves risk, and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of the strategy selected.
